TD Ida Morning Update

10:00 AM Update

Longitude: 15.0N Latitude: 84.0W

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: North at 7 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB

 

Ida is now a tropical depression. She is currently over eastern Honduras and should emerge back into the Atlantic by tonight. If she holds together and her core structure is not heavily damaged, Ida will restrengthen into a tropical storm fairly quickly and possibly reach hurricane status with time. Presently, there is moderate shear in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and that might inhibit any rapid strengthening from occurring, but the possibility still exists.

 

Currently, the models are in a good agreement for the next 24-48 hours. After that time frame, they begin to disagree. Some models want to take Ida into the central GOM by Tuesday while others want to take Ida towards the NE and bring her close to Florida. The latter is what the NHC is thinking are the more reliable solutions to follow at this point due to the historical climatology of the month of November. The reason for the possible bend towards Florida is due to a cold front that will be arriving by early next week. It is expected that Ida will get picked up by that front and brought into Florida. It is not known how strong will Ida be at that point, but everything points to a stronger storm in a few days. In fact, Ida could line-up with shear later in the forecast. What does that mean? It means that at some point in the forecast track, Ida could be moving in the same direction as the shear is blowing. Experts say this could actually help Ida strengthen further. Let's see what actually occurs. As you will see in the link below, the 5 day cone does show more of a bend towards Florida than it did yesterday.

 

At this point, we have to wait and see for three things: (1) in what shape will Ida emerge off the coast of Honduras. (2) how will the shear affect Ida once it reaches the GOM. (3) when will the front pick up Ida and where will Ida be at that point. All of the points listed above are to occur in that order. Over the weekend, we should keep a very close eye on Ida and see what transpires. I will try to send an update at some point Saturday. Have a great weekend !!

 

TD Ida - 5 Day Cone

Hurricane Ida Morning Update

Latitude: 12.8N Longitude: 83.4W

Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph

Present movement: NW at 7 mph

Minimum central pressure: 987 mb

 

TS Ida became a Hurricane Ida this morning and she is very close to the coast of Nicaragua. Although she is a minimal hurricane, winds gusting as high as 85 mph along with life threatening flooding in the region. The current thinking is that Ida will traverse Nicaragua and exit through Honduras by 1 am Saturday. That is a lot of time to be inland and it can seriously affect the structure of Ida. She is expected to emerge as a tropical depression by that time and make it back to tropical storm status by 1 am Sunday. In between 1 am Monday and 1 am Tuesday, Ida might clip the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Multiple models bring Ida into the Gulf of Mexico in a week. It is still early to say where and what Ida will do, but she does need to be watched in the coming days. An expert I read, thinks that Ida might not enter Nicaragua right away, slow down a bit, hug the coast, and then enter, but not spend too much time inland. If that occurs, Ida will not lose much of her punch. The atmosphere and time will tell. Stay tuned.

 

 5:00 AM 5-Day Cone

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TD #11 Is Born

An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has become better organized this morning. As of 11:00 AM, the National Hurricane Center has declared this system as Tropical Depression #11. Bursts of thunderstorms are occurring near the center with pronounced banding features developing also. The NHC has said that they will not be surprised if this system is already a Tropical Storm, but will hold off on taking that step until the Hurricane Hunters investigate TD #11 later this afternoon to give a better estimate of the actual winds.

 

The current thinking on the future track of TD #11 is that steering currents will remain weak during the next 5 days. Models do not have a good handle of TD #11, but some are saying that the depression will drift into Nicaragua and then re-emerge out the coast of Honduras. At that point, the system seems to curve. Considering the high uncertainty regarding the 5 day cone, don't put too much into the first few 5 day cones. They never stay the same. Once the depression has developed into a tropical storm, give it a couple of days so the models can get a good handle of the system.

 

I will post again later today with important information on the Hurricane Hunter mission and if TD #11 is updated to Tropical Storm Ida.

 

TD #11 5-Day Cone

Ex-Fred

What's left of Fred is still alive and need to be watched carefully.
Ex-Fred was located about 820 miles east of Florida moving WNW at around
14 mph. Currently, there is about 20 knots (23 mph) of shear around
ex-Fred and satellite is showing thunderstorms firing back-up south of
the center. It is predicted that ex-Fred will be in the Bahamas by
Sunday and close or onshore of east Florida (Vero Beach to Miami-Dade).
Ex-Fred will be moving into an area of favorable conditions as early as
tomorrow continuing into Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas
and Florida.

Even if ex-Fred does not regenerate into a tropical depression or storm,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be felt by Monday and continuing
into Tuesday. Some of the models think that ex-Fred might be delayed and
arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. Either way expect rain and wind around
Monday/Tuesday. Intensity models say that ex-Fred will regenerate into a
tropical storm again within the next 24 hours and forecast it to be a
50-55 mph tropical storm by Sunday/Monday and make landfall by late
Tuesday as a 60-65 mph tropical storm in eastern Florida.

It is going to be very tough to know for sure if will eventually
regenerate. I will not be surprised if ex-Fred does regenerate this
weekend. I say it is 50/50. Models are currently not in agreement on
where landfall will occur. Anyone living between Vero Beach and
Miami-Dade should watch carefully what happens with ex-Fred. Hurricane
Hunters are expected to fly into ex-Fred tomorrow afternoon to offer
more information for a better outlook.

I will watch this closely and advise over the weekend.

*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***

Fred - Teaching Moment

Good Afternoon !!!!!!!!!! I have decided that what is going on with Hurricane Fred far far away from land should be a great teaching moment for everyone.

 

On Monday, September 7 at 5:00 PM, the track of Fred looked like this after the 1^st advisory:

 

 

Why was Fred supposed to take that track? Well the simple answer is because the high pressure above Fred was going to be weakened by a trough of low pressure making its way across the Atlantic. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge (wall) and the influence of the trough (pull), Fred is allowed to take a more NW then north track because his "wall" will be weak and it will be "pulled".

 

 

On Tuesday, September 8 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 5^th advisory:

 

 

If you notice, the track illustrates a harder "pull" to the north. Two reasons why: (1) the trough of low pressure is stronger than they thought. (2) Fred was almost a hurricane at that point. When a storm is stronger is feels the effect of a trough a lot more that a weaker one. On the previous track, Fred's path showed a slower turn to the NW and north AND it is hinting of a possible turn to the WNW.

 

 

On Wednesday, September 9 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 9^th advisory:

 

 

There is the westward motion I mentioned before. Why the change? Well, for starters, the trough is still there for the first part of the advisory, but towards the end of it the high pressure builds back in and is steers Fred more west. In the middle of the track, you would see that there are three dots  that loo like they are on top of each other. That is an indication that the steering currents (what move the storms) will break down and Fred will meander out there.

 

On Thursday, September 10 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 13^th advisory:

 

 

Look at the track. You can't even see the first few dots because Fred is not even moving. Why? The steering currents broke down completely and there is nothing to "driving" the storm a certain direction. Towards the end of the track the westward movement is more distinguished. At this point, the track shows that the high pressure system above Fred will build back in in a few days and steer Fred towards the west.

 

Today's track looks like this:

 

 

Still meandering (as 11:00 AM Fred's movement was 1 MPH) and then turning towards the west in a few days.

 

I just want to show you guys that anything can change/happen with a tropical system. Just because the NHC says it is going to turn left in 5 days doesn't really mean that. Not because they don't know what they are saying, but because the atmosphere changes by the minute. When you are dealing with troughs and high pressures, there is always the possibility of the trough and/or the high pressure being weaker/stronger than expected in the days to come.

 

Fred is scheduled to weaken and become a remnant low in a few days, non tropical. Some models are hinting that the remnants of Fred will make it into the Bahamas in 10-12 days. Will Fred become as weak as the NHC currently says? Will he weaken only to a tropical depression? Shear is really taking its toll on Fred and that, along with cooler waters, will weaken Fred. Depending on Fred's structure in the coming days, those questions can possibly be answered. Until then, it is all speculation. I will keep an eye on this and inform all of you of any developments.

Morning Tropical Update

As of last night 11 PM, the National Hurricane Center will no longer issue advisories on the tropical depression formerly known as Erika. It has been ripped apart by shear before even getting to Hispañola. If Erika decides to regenerate, which the NHC currently gives a less than 30% chance of developing, the NHC will resume with the advisories. For now, R.I.P. Erika.

 

NEXT !!

 

Well since we are reaching the peak of hurricane season, September 12, we have another wave to track across the Atlantic for the next two weeks. A strong and huge wave near the Cape Verde islands has the potential to develop in the coming days. The NHC gives this wave a less than 30% chance of developing. The percentage is low because it emerged of the African coast early yesterday. Maybe by next week we could have a TD in the Atlantic. Time will tell. Have a great long weekend !!

 

Tropical Storm Erika Update

There is not much that can be said about Erika at this moment. She is on life-support and the thinking is that she may not recover, but she has shown us that she is a fighter. We have seen everything occur with this storm, so nothing would surprise me anymore. The Hurricane Hunters have been flying around her for a few hours now and they have not found winds within Erika to support her tropical storm status. She most likely will be downgraded to a tropical depression at 5 pm. Could things change in the future for Erika regarding her structure, intensity, and atmosphere surrounding her? Yes, but that is not the thinking. It will be interesting to see what Erika does when she leaves Puerto Rico and Hispañola behind and approach the Bahamas. For now, expect to get rain and gusty winds around Tuesday in South Florida due to the remnants of Erika. I won't let my guard down until two things happen: (1) she dies (2) she passes my latitude/longitude. Since neither of those two things have occurred, I'll keep my eye on her. Another update tomorrow afternoon. Have a great night.

*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***

Tropical Strom Erika Update

I really don't have much of a real update. At this point, it is wait and
see what happens with Erika. Some models say Erika will be a Cat. 3
hurricane while others have it as a weak tropical storm. Others want to
take her through Puerto Rico and back out to the ocean. Which one is
correct? The NHC track of Erika has been shifting to the left since
yesterday's 5 pm advisory. The Hurricane Hunters are currently flying
through Erika and have found winds up to 50 mph. I believe that the NHC
will upgrade Erika to 45-50 mph based on that data. She is struggling to
survive and putting up a good fight. Shear is trying to kill her, but
not yet. In the last few hours it seems that thunderstorms are trying
again to get organized around the center. I have read that made the
center will be moved down and to the right of where it is now. That is
one of the reasons why Erika has weakened - she has multiple centers. It
seems that maybe the one SE is the more dominant one. Time will tell. I
will send out another update later tonight if needed. If not, expect one
at about the same time as today.

*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***

Update at 4:00 pm

I will send out an update at 4:00 pm regarding tropical storm Erika.
Thank you for your patience.

*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***

Tropical Storm Erika Is Born

As of 5:00 pm, invest 94L became tropical storm Erika. Erika is located at 17.2N 57.3W and she is traveling WNW at 9 mph with winds at 50 mph. Erika is expected to be by Friday afternoon north of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles north of Haiti by Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of uncertainties with the track of Erika due to the same scenario of every year - high pressure and a trough. Currently, models are saying that a trough (takes storms out to sea) will create a weakness against the high (blocks storm from curving out to sea) over the storm. Once that occurs, the thinking is that Erika will curve out to sea. There are also those who say that the trough will not be strong enough and it will leave causing the high to build further west. Not good, but luckily that is not the current thinking. I wouldn't pay too much attention to where the models are saying Erika will travel through. They do not have any of the new information collected today by the Hurricane Hunters. That information will most likely make into the models 6-12 hours from now. Let's give the models some time to digest the info then see what they say. So for now, sit tight and listen to your local meterologists. I will have another update later tonight IF something changes. If not, expect an update after the 11 am update by the NHC.

Graphics below:

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center

Image Credit: NOAA Satellite and Information Services

Image Credit: South Florida Water Management Division

Image Credit:

Tropical Storm Erika

The Hurricane Hunters have been flying into and across invest 94L. Winds as high as 48 mph have been found. Therefore, I expect the NHC to name invest 94L Tropical Storm Erika. I am curious to see the 5 day cone of "uncertainty". More info later.

Afternoon Update

Nothing new on Invest 94L. Currently, it is surviving considering it has shear around that is trying to disrupt it. It is lacking a COC (Center Of Circulation). Without that, this system won't develop. Once it does acquire a COC, it could possibly strengthen rapidly because 94L currently is in hot waters. I believe that by tomorrow morning we will have Tropical Depression #6. In the short term, the Antilles and Puerto Rico should monitor any developments occurring with 94L/TD #6 as it will be in close proximity in the coming days. In the long run, 94L/TD #6 might pose a threat to the Bahamas and the CONUS (COntinental United States). There are some ideas as to the future track of 94L/TD #6, but I would like to see how things "pan out" in the 12-18 hours. I don't like to speculate and would prefer to wait until more data is analyzed.

Also, the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into 94L tomorrow. This would be great because we need all the info we can get considering 94L looks like more than an invest. I will be back tomorrow, if nothing changes tonight, with a full update and more information about the future track of 94L/TD #6.

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center

11 AM EST NHC Update:
Location: 27.5 North Latitude, 73.1 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 60 mph.
Movement: Northwest 13 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb

Tropical Storm Danny continues to look disorganized this morning. The center continues to be exposed with the heaviest thunderstorms being several hundred miles east of the center. Despite its disorganization, Danny continues to generate strong winds, with the Hurricane Hunters reporting winds in the 55 - 60 mph range early this morning. Conditions around Danny should get a bit better between today and Friday for Danny to gain Cat.1 strength. A landfall in Cape Cod, eastern Maine, or Nova Scotia with 55 - 75 mph winds is a good bet. Currently, Cape Hatteras and Morehead City are out of the cone, but close enough offshore to keep monitoring Danny very closely. Farther north, Cape Cod and surrounding areas should also monitor Danny closely as he will be passing by on Saturday afternoon and a direct hit cannot be ruled out. On the current track, a direct hit is expected in Nova Scotia later in the forecast.

Please stay tuned to the blog for further details, but most importantly, follow the advice of your local meteorologists.

Invest 92L was born yesterday out of the blob in the picture I sent yesterday morning. Currently, the NHC gives the tropical wave a less than 30% chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours. At this moment nothing else can be said about the strong tropical wave because it is far out in the Atlantic Ocean.

My next update will be tomorrow morning.

Have a great day !!

Next headache ??

The models are not saying much about the wave below yet, but the NHC says there is a less than 30% chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. It does look pretty impressive and conditions around it are favorable for development. I will keep an eye on the
models in the coming days to see if they start to pick up this wave and where should we expect it to go.

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

Here is the 11 am est Information on Tropical Storm Danny:
Location: 24.9 North Latitude, 70.3 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph.
Movement: West Northwest 18 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb.

Tropical Storm Danny is located 445 miles east of Nassau, Bahamas and 775 miles from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Danny is expected to commence a general NW motion beginning today and continuing Thursday with a turn towards the NNW on Friday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center. On its current track, Danny's closest approach to Florida ranges between 400-450 miles off the coast anywhere between 8/27/2009 at 8:00 pm and 8/28/2009 at 8:00 am.

Danny is not expected to be a threat for Florida, but interests in the Carolinas and points northward along the eastern seaboard including Nova Scotia, again. By the time it reaches Nova Scotia, it is projected to be a Cat.1 hurricane, possibly a minimal Cat.2. Considering the current information, watches and warnings may be needed for the area of Morehead City and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina beginning today at the earliest 5 pm or the ultimate latest 5 am tomorrow morning. Things might change between now and tomorrow, but Danny will pass about 120 miles off the coast of Cape Hatteras on Saturday morning. As mentioned above, tropical storm force winds extend 140 miles so these winds will be felt in Cape Hatteras. More info to follow. Below is the forecast track for tropical storm Danny.

Morning Tropical Update

R.I.P Hurricane Bill !!

Happy 17th Anniversary Hurricane Andrew !!

Welcome to the World Invest 92L !!

We have a new area of disturbed weather to keep an eye one this week. It has been labeled Invest 92 L for investigational purposes. Currently, the tropical wave is located east of the Leeward Islands moving WNW. Models have shown that a storm will develop just before the Bahamas early this week and track away from Florida and up the east coast late in the week. The entire eastern seaboard should monitor this wave until it becomes clearer the path of Invest 92L. The National Hurricane Center has also designated this area "code yellow" which means it has a less than 30% chance of developing at this moment. I will keep everyone updated as the news changes.

Below is a picture taken by the Hurricane Hunters during one of their missions into Hurricane Bill. This picture was taken while in the eye.

Image Credit: Weather Underground - Dr. Jeff Masters Blog

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

11:00 AM EST Hurricane Bill Update:

Location: 22.6 North Latitude, 61.7 West Longitude

Maximum Sustained Winds: 120 mph

Movement: Northwest at 18 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 951 MB

A hurricane watch has been issued for the island of Bermuda. Bill is located 695 miles south southeast of Bermuda and hurricane conditions are expected in 36 hours. Bill has weakened a bit due to the eyewall becoming exposed on the southwest side, but he is expected to re-gain Cat. 4 strength by Friday considering he will be traversing the warmest waters yet . Bill has grown in size since yesterday's advisory. Currently, tropical storm force winds (34-73 mph) extend 260 miles from the center and hurricane force winds (74+ mph) extend 105 miles.

The current thinking from NHC has not changed. Hurricane Bill will come within 100-150 miles from the coast of New England. Residents and vacationers in Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island should start preparing today for a hurricane strike on Sunday/Sunday night. Bill is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia as a strong Cat.2/ weak Cat.3 (100-115 mph). There is the possibility that Bill's eye could pass offshore of the mentioned areas. Landfall or close call, very strong winds and rain will be felt in the areas mentioned above and preparation should commence for the worse.

I will have another update tomorrow morning. Have a great day !!

Morning Tropical Update

Here is the 11 AM EST On Hurricane Bill:

Location: 18.7 North Latitude, 56.3 West Longitude
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: West-Northwest at 18 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars

This morning's satellite shows Bill continues to have impressive symmetry and his eye is about 25-30 miles wide. Hurricane Hunters are inside Bill investigating him and the atmosphere surrounding him. An upper level low (ULL) and a trough of low pressure are the weather features that will create the weakness on the western side of the high pressure ridge. Models are forecasting that Bill will commence to turn northwest in about 2-3 days. The question is when will the turn occur. European models suggest that the turn will happen near 67 west longitude and two other models suggest that Bill will turn between 70-71 west longitude. The farther out in the forecast the wider the models get from each other. People in New England and points north show watch the track of Bill closely because the models continue to shift west (slightly) and every shift keeps bringing Bill closer and closer to brushing the coast. The NHC is NOT forecasting landfall in New England, but a small part is in the cone. On the other hand, Nova Scotia and Newfound Land need to watch the track of Bill much closely as it approaches because they are currently in the path of probably a weaker Bill at the end of the forecast track. Most likely by that time, Bill would be downgraded to a strong Cat.1 to a medium Cat.2 because the waters would be cooler farther north and he would be moving pretty fast.

There are still some minimal concerns regarding Bill's much anticipated turn. Atmospheric changes can occur at any time and IF the high pressure currently steering Bill get stronger and force Bill on a more westerly track and curve Bill out to sea later than anticipated. The NHC seems very confident on the scenario they have had for days now and I trust their thinking. Me personally, do not feel safe until Bill passes my latitude 25 north (Miami). Everything seems to point to Bill passing about 1,000 miles off the coast of Florida. Bill currently has a hurricane force (74+ mph) wind field that extends out 80 miles and tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extend 180 miles from the center. Also, swells as high as 12 feet should affect the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and part of the eastern seaboard.

There are a few waves out there that need to be watched, but nothing imminent. I will keep my eye on them and let you guys know as soon as anything changes.

Have a great day !!

NHC update

Straight from the horse's mouth:

000
WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

KIMBERLAIN/PASCH

Morning/Afternoon Tropical Update

As of 11 AM EST, Hurricane Bill is located at 15.9N & 51.2W or about 705 east of the Lesser Antilles. Winds have increased to 105 mph and more strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours since Bill will be moving into warmer waters. Movement is at 16 mph towards the WNW and the pressure is at 963 MB. The theory is still the same for the future of Bill – curve out to sea. There is a possibility that the eastern tip of New England MIGHT get a brush of Bill as it curves out to sea. That is not yet official, but the more Bill moves towards the WNW or west of WNW, the chances increase. When should the turn start? A weakness should occur around 57W and that should be the start of a more NW track. It is possible for Bill to reach 70W on the map and then get pulled north at that point.

A lot of things are uncertain because the track is dependent on a few factors – 2 – 3 trofs and a high pressure. Models develop the third trof as strong enough to do the job. Will it be? The second trof is supposed to cause a weakness in the high pressure and the third trof is supposed to finish the job. At this moment, the high pressure looks to be stronger than initially projected by the models. I think a lot of these uncertainties should get put to rest as the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Bill today in the afternoon. They will be flying into Bill for the next 3 days. They will sample and collect data that will be entered into the computer models. Some of the information they will be collecting will be – how strong the high pressure really is? This should give the NHC priceless information they currently do not have and will help the models. I believe the data collected this afternoon will not make it for the 5 PM models. In another 24-36 hours, the picture should be a bit clearer on the atmosphere that is scheduled to affect Bill and its track.

Stay tuned.