An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has become better organized this morning. As of 11:00 AM, the National Hurricane Center has declared this system as Tropical Depression #11. Bursts of thunderstorms are occurring near the center with pronounced banding features developing also. The NHC has said that they will not be surprised if this system is already a Tropical Storm, but will hold off on taking that step until the Hurricane Hunters investigate TD #11 later this afternoon to give a better estimate of the actual winds.
The current thinking on the future track of TD #11 is that steering currents will remain weak during the next 5 days. Models do not have a good handle of TD #11, but some are saying that the depression will drift into Nicaragua and then re-emerge out the coast of Honduras. At that point, the system seems to curve. Considering the high uncertainty regarding the 5 day cone, don't put too much into the first few 5 day cones. They never stay the same. Once the depression has developed into a tropical storm, give it a couple of days so the models can get a good handle of the system.
I will post again later today with important information on the Hurricane Hunter mission and if TD #11 is updated to Tropical Storm Ida.
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