TD Ida Morning Update

10:00 AM Update

Longitude: 15.0N Latitude: 84.0W

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph

Movement: North at 7 mph

Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB

 

Ida is now a tropical depression. She is currently over eastern Honduras and should emerge back into the Atlantic by tonight. If she holds together and her core structure is not heavily damaged, Ida will restrengthen into a tropical storm fairly quickly and possibly reach hurricane status with time. Presently, there is moderate shear in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and that might inhibit any rapid strengthening from occurring, but the possibility still exists.

 

Currently, the models are in a good agreement for the next 24-48 hours. After that time frame, they begin to disagree. Some models want to take Ida into the central GOM by Tuesday while others want to take Ida towards the NE and bring her close to Florida. The latter is what the NHC is thinking are the more reliable solutions to follow at this point due to the historical climatology of the month of November. The reason for the possible bend towards Florida is due to a cold front that will be arriving by early next week. It is expected that Ida will get picked up by that front and brought into Florida. It is not known how strong will Ida be at that point, but everything points to a stronger storm in a few days. In fact, Ida could line-up with shear later in the forecast. What does that mean? It means that at some point in the forecast track, Ida could be moving in the same direction as the shear is blowing. Experts say this could actually help Ida strengthen further. Let's see what actually occurs. As you will see in the link below, the 5 day cone does show more of a bend towards Florida than it did yesterday.

 

At this point, we have to wait and see for three things: (1) in what shape will Ida emerge off the coast of Honduras. (2) how will the shear affect Ida once it reaches the GOM. (3) when will the front pick up Ida and where will Ida be at that point. All of the points listed above are to occur in that order. Over the weekend, we should keep a very close eye on Ida and see what transpires. I will try to send an update at some point Saturday. Have a great weekend !!

 

TD Ida - 5 Day Cone