Ex-Fred

What's left of Fred is still alive and need to be watched carefully.
Ex-Fred was located about 820 miles east of Florida moving WNW at around
14 mph. Currently, there is about 20 knots (23 mph) of shear around
ex-Fred and satellite is showing thunderstorms firing back-up south of
the center. It is predicted that ex-Fred will be in the Bahamas by
Sunday and close or onshore of east Florida (Vero Beach to Miami-Dade).
Ex-Fred will be moving into an area of favorable conditions as early as
tomorrow continuing into Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas
and Florida.

Even if ex-Fred does not regenerate into a tropical depression or storm,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be felt by Monday and continuing
into Tuesday. Some of the models think that ex-Fred might be delayed and
arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. Either way expect rain and wind around
Monday/Tuesday. Intensity models say that ex-Fred will regenerate into a
tropical storm again within the next 24 hours and forecast it to be a
50-55 mph tropical storm by Sunday/Monday and make landfall by late
Tuesday as a 60-65 mph tropical storm in eastern Florida.

It is going to be very tough to know for sure if will eventually
regenerate. I will not be surprised if ex-Fred does regenerate this
weekend. I say it is 50/50. Models are currently not in agreement on
where landfall will occur. Anyone living between Vero Beach and
Miami-Dade should watch carefully what happens with ex-Fred. Hurricane
Hunters are expected to fly into ex-Fred tomorrow afternoon to offer
more information for a better outlook.

I will watch this closely and advise over the weekend.

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