Tropical Storm Erika Is Born

As of 5:00 pm, invest 94L became tropical storm Erika. Erika is located at 17.2N 57.3W and she is traveling WNW at 9 mph with winds at 50 mph. Erika is expected to be by Friday afternoon north of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles north of Haiti by Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of uncertainties with the track of Erika due to the same scenario of every year - high pressure and a trough. Currently, models are saying that a trough (takes storms out to sea) will create a weakness against the high (blocks storm from curving out to sea) over the storm. Once that occurs, the thinking is that Erika will curve out to sea. There are also those who say that the trough will not be strong enough and it will leave causing the high to build further west. Not good, but luckily that is not the current thinking. I wouldn't pay too much attention to where the models are saying Erika will travel through. They do not have any of the new information collected today by the Hurricane Hunters. That information will most likely make into the models 6-12 hours from now. Let's give the models some time to digest the info then see what they say. So for now, sit tight and listen to your local meterologists. I will have another update later tonight IF something changes. If not, expect an update after the 11 am update by the NHC.

Graphics below:

Image Credit: National Hurricane Center

Image Credit: NOAA Satellite and Information Services

Image Credit: South Florida Water Management Division

Image Credit: