Fred - Teaching Moment

Good Afternoon !!!!!!!!!! I have decided that what is going on with Hurricane Fred far far away from land should be a great teaching moment for everyone.

 

On Monday, September 7 at 5:00 PM, the track of Fred looked like this after the 1^st advisory:

 

 

Why was Fred supposed to take that track? Well the simple answer is because the high pressure above Fred was going to be weakened by a trough of low pressure making its way across the Atlantic. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge (wall) and the influence of the trough (pull), Fred is allowed to take a more NW then north track because his "wall" will be weak and it will be "pulled".

 

 

On Tuesday, September 8 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 5^th advisory:

 

 

If you notice, the track illustrates a harder "pull" to the north. Two reasons why: (1) the trough of low pressure is stronger than they thought. (2) Fred was almost a hurricane at that point. When a storm is stronger is feels the effect of a trough a lot more that a weaker one. On the previous track, Fred's path showed a slower turn to the NW and north AND it is hinting of a possible turn to the WNW.

 

 

On Wednesday, September 9 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 9^th advisory:

 

 

There is the westward motion I mentioned before. Why the change? Well, for starters, the trough is still there for the first part of the advisory, but towards the end of it the high pressure builds back in and is steers Fred more west. In the middle of the track, you would see that there are three dots  that loo like they are on top of each other. That is an indication that the steering currents (what move the storms) will break down and Fred will meander out there.

 

On Thursday, September 10 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 13^th advisory:

 

 

Look at the track. You can't even see the first few dots because Fred is not even moving. Why? The steering currents broke down completely and there is nothing to "driving" the storm a certain direction. Towards the end of the track the westward movement is more distinguished. At this point, the track shows that the high pressure system above Fred will build back in in a few days and steer Fred towards the west.

 

Today's track looks like this:

 

 

Still meandering (as 11:00 AM Fred's movement was 1 MPH) and then turning towards the west in a few days.

 

I just want to show you guys that anything can change/happen with a tropical system. Just because the NHC says it is going to turn left in 5 days doesn't really mean that. Not because they don't know what they are saying, but because the atmosphere changes by the minute. When you are dealing with troughs and high pressures, there is always the possibility of the trough and/or the high pressure being weaker/stronger than expected in the days to come.

 

Fred is scheduled to weaken and become a remnant low in a few days, non tropical. Some models are hinting that the remnants of Fred will make it into the Bahamas in 10-12 days. Will Fred become as weak as the NHC currently says? Will he weaken only to a tropical depression? Shear is really taking its toll on Fred and that, along with cooler waters, will weaken Fred. Depending on Fred's structure in the coming days, those questions can possibly be answered. Until then, it is all speculation. I will keep an eye on this and inform all of you of any developments.