Morning Tropical Update

Here is the 11 AM EST On Hurricane Bill:

Location: 18.7 North Latitude, 56.3 West Longitude
Maximum Sustained Winds: 135 mph
Movement: West-Northwest at 18 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 950 millibars

This morning's satellite shows Bill continues to have impressive symmetry and his eye is about 25-30 miles wide. Hurricane Hunters are inside Bill investigating him and the atmosphere surrounding him. An upper level low (ULL) and a trough of low pressure are the weather features that will create the weakness on the western side of the high pressure ridge. Models are forecasting that Bill will commence to turn northwest in about 2-3 days. The question is when will the turn occur. European models suggest that the turn will happen near 67 west longitude and two other models suggest that Bill will turn between 70-71 west longitude. The farther out in the forecast the wider the models get from each other. People in New England and points north show watch the track of Bill closely because the models continue to shift west (slightly) and every shift keeps bringing Bill closer and closer to brushing the coast. The NHC is NOT forecasting landfall in New England, but a small part is in the cone. On the other hand, Nova Scotia and Newfound Land need to watch the track of Bill much closely as it approaches because they are currently in the path of probably a weaker Bill at the end of the forecast track. Most likely by that time, Bill would be downgraded to a strong Cat.1 to a medium Cat.2 because the waters would be cooler farther north and he would be moving pretty fast.

There are still some minimal concerns regarding Bill's much anticipated turn. Atmospheric changes can occur at any time and IF the high pressure currently steering Bill get stronger and force Bill on a more westerly track and curve Bill out to sea later than anticipated. The NHC seems very confident on the scenario they have had for days now and I trust their thinking. Me personally, do not feel safe until Bill passes my latitude 25 north (Miami). Everything seems to point to Bill passing about 1,000 miles off the coast of Florida. Bill currently has a hurricane force (74+ mph) wind field that extends out 80 miles and tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) extend 180 miles from the center. Also, swells as high as 12 feet should affect the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and part of the eastern seaboard.

There are a few waves out there that need to be watched, but nothing imminent. I will keep my eye on them and let you guys know as soon as anything changes.

Have a great day !!