Ex-TD #2 has re-generated into tropical storm Ana. TS Ana is currently located 14.6N 46.8W, currently about 1,000 miles from the Leeward Islands. The models are in good agreement for the first 3 days of the track. They become a bit more scattered after 5 days, which is normal. The 5 day cone of uncertainty has Florida, but it also includes half of Cuba and 3/4 of Florida. The point is that the margin of error is large. But, if the current track is accurate, by 2AM Thursday, TS Ana will be 92 miles from Miami. With storms this small, rapid intensification can occur as can the opposite. The NHC said in their discussion that they believe that the current forecast intensification for TS Ana is generous. At this point, those in the path of TS Ana should pay attention. Some a couple of the models kill the storm in a couple of days. Others continue to develop TS Ana bring her near Florida. The possibility exists that the TS can be turned away from Florida. Some models are predicting that a weakness in the high that will steer TS Ana will have a weakness in it. That is not certain yet and the track slightly shows that, but a very slow slow turn. By Monday or Tuesday, we should have a good idea as to what to expect with TS Ana. I will have multiple updates throughout the day. Stay tuned.
Picture Credit: Weather Underground
Invest 90L:
I will have a better update at 11:00 AM. From what I have read this morning and the data I have seen, invest 90L might skip TD status and become a TS. More to follow.
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