As of 11 AM EST, Hurricane Bill is located at 15.9N & 51.2W or about 705 east of the Lesser Antilles. Winds have increased to 105 mph and more strengthening is expected in the next 48 hours since Bill will be moving into warmer waters. Movement is at 16 mph towards the WNW and the pressure is at 963 MB. The theory is still the same for the future of Bill – curve out to sea. There is a possibility that the eastern tip of New England MIGHT get a brush of Bill as it curves out to sea. That is not yet official, but the more Bill moves towards the WNW or west of WNW, the chances increase. When should the turn start? A weakness should occur around 57W and that should be the start of a more NW track. It is possible for Bill to reach 70W on the map and then get pulled north at that point.
A lot of things are uncertain because the track is dependent on a few factors – 2 – 3 trofs and a high pressure. Models develop the third trof as strong enough to do the job. Will it be? The second trof is supposed to cause a weakness in the high pressure and the third trof is supposed to finish the job. At this moment, the high pressure looks to be stronger than initially projected by the models. I think a lot of these uncertainties should get put to rest as the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into Bill today in the afternoon. They will be flying into Bill for the next 3 days. They will sample and collect data that will be entered into the computer models. Some of the information they will be collecting will be – how strong the high pressure really is? This should give the NHC priceless information they currently do not have and will help the models. I believe the data collected this afternoon will not make it for the 5 PM models. In another 24-36 hours, the picture should be a bit clearer on the atmosphere that is scheduled to affect Bill and its track.
Stay tuned.
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