Special Advisory

A vigorous tropical wave, as labeled by the National Hurricane Center, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms near the coast of western Africa this morning. The wave was upgrade earlier today from a less than 30%(code yellow) to 30%-50% (code orange). Conditions appear to be very conducive for development for the next week. It is possible that this wave can travel the whole Atlantic in the next 10 days. I expect this tropical wave to be classified as a Invest sometime today or at the latest tomorrow. Some models are developing this system into a
major hurricane by next week. The latest European model run (ECMWF) is showing the wave as a hurricane located in the Southern Bahamas by next Friday (August 21). Models are not used to say, "a hurricane will hit here." They are mostly used to see trends and consistency in the atmosphere. Also, models this far out are less accurate; so please don't be worried, but vigilant in the coming days.

Below are some concerns from a weather guy about the African wave:

1. The forecast shear maps are showing a large high pressure system developing over this system and moving in sync with it, which would create a very favorable environment for development and intensification over the next several days, at least.

2. It is at a low enough latitude to potentially make this a long tracked storm that could make it all the way to the US coastline. This is NOT a sure thing, but it is a possibility.

3. It is already showing signs of a mid-level circulation and it does have plenty of moisture to work with.

Experts are also saying that TD #2 will end up moistening the environment, move out the Saharan dust from the path, and creating a very favorable environment for development for the disturbance. The reason I am sending this is because when you watch the news tonight the meteorologists are going to mention the fact that the wave is at "code orange". They will say that the wave is 10-12 days away. Models are not set in stone so time will tell. I like to be realistic and know all the possible scenarios before it happens.

Stay tuned for the latest information on TD #2 and the tropical wave off of Africa.