| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Don't want to receive email notifications? Adjust your message settings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday, August 23, 2011
LinkedIn Network Updates, 8/23/2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
LinkedIn Network Updates, 8/16/2011
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Don't want to receive email notifications? Adjust your message settings | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Invest 97L
There is a tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico that has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bonnie in a day. There is a good possibility that South Florida will experience tropical storm conditions by Thursday night/Friday morning. More info to follow tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Hurricane Alex Update
Hurricane Alex as of 8:00 AM:
Location: 23.4 North Latitude, 95.3 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph.
Movement: West-Northwest at 7 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 MB
Alex is continuing to become very organized with every hour that goes by. The Hurricane Hunters have found a lower pressure – 959mb. Currently, the winds have not caught up with the pressure Alex has right now. Alex SHOULD have winds in the neighborhood of 115 mph – category 3 – as opposed to 80 mph. The winds are expected to catch-up with the pressure today, so rapid intensification is very likely. My prediction still stands, I believe Alex will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane. Alex is located off the coast of Mexico and is expected to make landfall tonight or in the very early hours of Thursday.
Have a great day !!
Monday, June 28, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex Update
Tropical Storm Alex as of 5:00AM
Location: 19.7 North Latitude, 91.6 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph.
Movement: Northwest at 6 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars
Tropical Storm Alex made landfall over the weekend as a tropical storm and quickly deteriorated in a tropical depression upon landfall. Alex has since then regained tropical storm status as it reached the waters off the Bay of Campeche. Alex is expected to reach Category 2 status with winds up to 110 mph by landfall between eastern Mexico and western Texas by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. There are some models that are not in agreement with the location of landfall, but at this moment those models are the outliers.
I believe that Alex will each Category 3 at landfall (115 – 125 mph) and continue to add to his lists of first's (first tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane) and become the first major hurricane of the season because the waters are warm along his path and the environment is conducive for further development. Also the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is usually off when estimating the potential strength of a hurricane. So when their predictions borders the next category, I go up to the one.
Since this storm will not affect us, I will not constantly post information regarding Alex. My next post will be tomorrow morning.
Friday, June 25, 2010
Invest 93-L Update
Good Morning………………
Here's a summary regarding Invest 93-L: the tropical wave is currently located in the Western Caribbean approaching South America. Models are forecasting two scenarios for the wave: (1) cross into Mexico, exit into the Bay of Campeche, and probably make landfall in south Texas. (2) to pass thru Yucatan Peninsula, enter the Gulf of Mexico, and head towards the Northern Gulf with the possibility of getting picked up by a trough and curved towards the Florida Panhandle. The first scenario is the favorite one at the moment. If anything happens, it will be later next week. Air reconnaissance will be dispatched into the system this morning to get a better look at the wave and for confirmation of the formation of a tropical depression.
Stay tuned to Enrique6News for more details. If invest 93-L develops today, I will issue another update to inform you. If not, expect another update Monday morning.
Have a great weekend !!
Monday, June 21, 2010
Invest 93L
Hello…….
As I mentioned in my last post, the tropics will start to heat up, no pun intended. The time is HERE. There is a strong tropical wave located in the Caribbean between Puerto Rico and the A.B.C. islands (Aruba, Barbados, and Curacao) that has been named, Invest 93L. The wave is currently tracking towards the west at about 10-15 mph and will change course during the week towards the WNW. It is very very early to speculate if and when will this wave develop and how strong will is be. All indications point that invest 93L will develop into a Tropical Depression later this week.
Models show that this storm has the potential to reach hurricane strength because the atmospheric conditions around the wave are ideal for development. A couple of experts have even said that for the next week, there doesn't seem to be much out there in prevent invest 93L from developing. The models range from the Gulf to the Florida Panhandle. As I have said in the past, models are only as good as the information input into them. A better idea will be gathered when invest 93L becomes a tropical storm/hurricane and the models have been given the appropriate information. With that said, we need to watch this one carefully. There is a very good chance this wave will develop and stick around for a few days.
Stay informed with Enrique6News. More information tomorrow morning/afternoon.
Thursday, June 17, 2010
UK Met Office Predicts A Very Busy Season
Another very reliable meteorological agency is predicting a very active hurricane season. The MET office in the United Kingdom is forecasting 20 tropical storms between July and November. If this is an accurate forecast, the 2010 season will join only the 2005 season as the only two seasons with 20 or more named storms EVER.
You may be thinking, "So what. They are located in the UK. How much can they know about hurricanes." Well, the UK Met office has done very well in forecasting in previous years AND they predicted accurately that 2007 and 2009 seasons where going to be quiet. They also predicted that 2008 was going to be an active year. In other word, this seems like it is a proven system because the forecasters were able to distinguish that 2007 was going to be quiet, 2008 was going to be busy, and 2009 was going to be quiet.
This is just another indication of the kind of season we are heading into. Stay tuned for more information.
Invest 92L
Invest 92L is being ripped apart by 40-50 knots of wind shear in the Eastern Atlantic. Unfortunately, what is left of 92L will traverse this weekend through Hispaniola with very heavy rainfall. Hopefully, the people of Haiti will be OK considering they are still recovering from the earthquake. The big question is – in what shape will 92L be in when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico early next week? It will have to be monitored.
There is a tropical wave located between Africa and the Leeward Islands that some models want to develop towards the middle of next week. The models shows this wave tracking into the southwestern Caribbean around June 26-28. Considering that multiple models are showing development, it is something that cannot be disregarded. Another model is hinting of a possible development near the Yucatan Peninsula and far out in the Atlantic in another 10 days. Don't forget that none of this is "set in stone" and the atmosphere changes hourly.
It appears like there might be trouble in the tropics within the next 10-14 days so stay tuned to the blog for more information.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Start Your Engines - Invest 92L
Good Afternoon !!
I am sorry to disturb your Sunday afternoon, but there is a strong and impressive tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. This wave came off the coast of Africa yesterday, 60 days before the traditional Cape Verde part of the season. What's so impressive is that during the month of June, it is rare to see such a strong tropical wave so far east so early in the system. If this wave does not develop further, this should serve as an example of how wild and crazy this hurricane season will be.
The National Huricane Center has given Invest 92L a 50% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Alex. Although it is not expected that invest 92L to survive further than the Windward Islands, not should be ruled out. I will inform all of you if invest 92L transforms into Tropical Storm Alex today, so please stay tuned.
I will create another post tomorrow morning.
I am sorry to disturb your Sunday afternoon, but there is a strong and impressive tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. This wave came off the coast of Africa yesterday, 60 days before the traditional Cape Verde part of the season. What's so impressive is that during the month of June, it is rare to see such a strong tropical wave so far east so early in the system. If this wave does not develop further, this should serve as an example of how wild and crazy this hurricane season will be.
The National Huricane Center has given Invest 92L a 50% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Alex. Although it is not expected that invest 92L to survive further than the Windward Islands, not should be ruled out. I will inform all of you if invest 92L transforms into Tropical Storm Alex today, so please stay tuned.
I will create another post tomorrow morning.
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Why So Active?
The 2010 hurricane season is here and it will last until November 30th. As I mentioned last week, this season is developing into a very active tropical season. Why you may ask? Well here are a few reasons:
1. Weakening El Niño
2. Ocean temperatures warming
3. Weakening trade winds
4. Higher humidity and lower sea pressure
Last year, El Ni̱o was present for most of the year and that is one of the main reasons why last year was quiet. With El Ni̱o present, the ocean is unstable with strong wind shear (tears apart tropical cyclones) and other inhibiting factors. La Ni̱a provides the opposite Рnice environment for storms to flourish. She is already commencing to appear in the enviroment and will be in full force by the summer, if not sooner.
Ocean temperatures, which fuel tropical cyclones, for March and April have set new records dating back to 1950 and have continued to increased throughout May. The reason is due to a weak subtropical ridge of high pressure that has reduced trade winds and allowed the ocean to warm-up considerably. The easterly ocean currents will carry the warm water towards the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico by Aug/Sep to warm further. With the ocean this warm, it is hard to ignore the fact that tropical activity will be kept to a minimum.
The experts have compiled together a few years that could be compared to how the 2010 season is currently set-up. In other words, the pre-2010 hurricane season atmospheric set-up can be best compared to the years of: 1964, 1969, 1995, 2005, and 2008. No one out there is saying that this hurricane season will be a "replica" of the 2005 season. On the contrary, it has been said that they don't expect the totals to reach or eclipse the 2005 record year.
Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University just released their updated forecast. They do these updates 4 times a year (December 2009, April 2010, June, and August). I will read it within the next few days and my next post will touch on the information within the report , tell you what he thinks might occur this season, and what has changed from his April update. I can tell you that in April he predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. He now thinks this season will generate 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.
More to come in the near future. Stay tuned.
Friday, May 28, 2010
Hurricane Season Approaching
Hello Everyone,
Welcome to another episode of "The Hurricane Season From Hell". As you may know, the commencement of hurricane season is only 4 days away. I wish I had better news for you, but the 2010 season is predicted to be an above average season. Below are a few predictions from the experts:
Colorado State University – 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Dr. William Gray has been forecasting hurricanes for over 40 years and he said this about the upcoming 2010 hurricane season: "The numbers are going to go up quite high. This looks like a hell of a year."
NOAA – 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes, and 3-7 major hurricanes.
Accuweather – 15 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2-3 major hurricanes. He is predicting 7 landfalls.
WeatherBug – 12-17 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes and 3-4 major hurricanes
Next week, I will post information regarding the numbers given above by the experts and why do they ALL think the 2010 season will be a total opposite of 2009 and a parallel to 2005 and 2008.
Stay tuned to Enrique6 News.
Friday, November 6, 2009
TD Ida Morning Update
10:00 AM Update
Longitude: 15.0N Latitude: 84.0W
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Movement: North at 7 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 MB
Ida is now a tropical depression. She is currently over eastern Honduras and should emerge back into the Atlantic by tonight. If she holds together and her core structure is not heavily damaged, Ida will restrengthen into a tropical storm fairly quickly and possibly reach hurricane status with time. Presently, there is moderate shear in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and that might inhibit any rapid strengthening from occurring, but the possibility still exists.
Currently, the models are in a good agreement for the next 24-48 hours. After that time frame, they begin to disagree. Some models want to take Ida into the central GOM by Tuesday while others want to take Ida towards the NE and bring her close to Florida. The latter is what the NHC is thinking are the more reliable solutions to follow at this point due to the historical climatology of the month of November. The reason for the possible bend towards Florida is due to a cold front that will be arriving by early next week. It is expected that Ida will get picked up by that front and brought into Florida. It is not known how strong will Ida be at that point, but everything points to a stronger storm in a few days. In fact, Ida could line-up with shear later in the forecast. What does that mean? It means that at some point in the forecast track, Ida could be moving in the same direction as the shear is blowing. Experts say this could actually help Ida strengthen further. Let's see what actually occurs. As you will see in the link below, the 5 day cone does show more of a bend towards Florida than it did yesterday.
At this point, we have to wait and see for three things: (1) in what shape will Ida emerge off the coast of Honduras. (2) how will the shear affect Ida once it reaches the GOM. (3) when will the front pick up Ida and where will Ida be at that point. All of the points listed above are to occur in that order. Over the weekend, we should keep a very close eye on Ida and see what transpires. I will try to send an update at some point Saturday. Have a great weekend !!
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Hurricane Ida Morning Update
Latitude: 12.8N Longitude: 83.4W
Maximum sustained winds: 75 mph
Present movement: NW at 7 mph
Minimum central pressure: 987 mb
TS Ida became a Hurricane Ida this morning and she is very close to the coast of Nicaragua. Although she is a minimal hurricane, winds gusting as high as 85 mph along with life threatening flooding in the region. The current thinking is that Ida will traverse Nicaragua and exit through Honduras by 1 am Saturday. That is a lot of time to be inland and it can seriously affect the structure of Ida. She is expected to emerge as a tropical depression by that time and make it back to tropical storm status by 1 am Sunday. In between 1 am Monday and 1 am Tuesday, Ida might clip the eastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. Multiple models bring Ida into the Gulf of Mexico in a week. It is still early to say where and what Ida will do, but she does need to be watched in the coming days. An expert I read, thinks that Ida might not enter Nicaragua right away, slow down a bit, hug the coast, and then enter, but not spend too much time inland. If that occurs, Ida will not lose much of her punch. The atmosphere and time will tell. Stay tuned.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
TD #11 Is Born
An area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean has become better organized this morning. As of 11:00 AM, the National Hurricane Center has declared this system as Tropical Depression #11. Bursts of thunderstorms are occurring near the center with pronounced banding features developing also. The NHC has said that they will not be surprised if this system is already a Tropical Storm, but will hold off on taking that step until the Hurricane Hunters investigate TD #11 later this afternoon to give a better estimate of the actual winds.
The current thinking on the future track of TD #11 is that steering currents will remain weak during the next 5 days. Models do not have a good handle of TD #11, but some are saying that the depression will drift into Nicaragua and then re-emerge out the coast of Honduras. At that point, the system seems to curve. Considering the high uncertainty regarding the 5 day cone, don't put too much into the first few 5 day cones. They never stay the same. Once the depression has developed into a tropical storm, give it a couple of days so the models can get a good handle of the system.
I will post again later today with important information on the Hurricane Hunter mission and if TD #11 is updated to Tropical Storm Ida.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Ex-Fred
What's left of Fred is still alive and need to be watched carefully.
Ex-Fred was located about 820 miles east of Florida moving WNW at around
14 mph. Currently, there is about 20 knots (23 mph) of shear around
ex-Fred and satellite is showing thunderstorms firing back-up south of
the center. It is predicted that ex-Fred will be in the Bahamas by
Sunday and close or onshore of east Florida (Vero Beach to Miami-Dade).
Ex-Fred will be moving into an area of favorable conditions as early as
tomorrow continuing into Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas
and Florida.
Ex-Fred was located about 820 miles east of Florida moving WNW at around
14 mph. Currently, there is about 20 knots (23 mph) of shear around
ex-Fred and satellite is showing thunderstorms firing back-up south of
the center. It is predicted that ex-Fred will be in the Bahamas by
Sunday and close or onshore of east Florida (Vero Beach to Miami-Dade).
Ex-Fred will be moving into an area of favorable conditions as early as
tomorrow continuing into Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Bahamas
and Florida.
Even if ex-Fred does not regenerate into a tropical depression or storm,
heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be felt by Monday and continuing
into Tuesday. Some of the models think that ex-Fred might be delayed and
arrive Tuesday or Wednesday. Either way expect rain and wind around
Monday/Tuesday. Intensity models say that ex-Fred will regenerate into a
tropical storm again within the next 24 hours and forecast it to be a
50-55 mph tropical storm by Sunday/Monday and make landfall by late
Tuesday as a 60-65 mph tropical storm in eastern Florida.
It is going to be very tough to know for sure if will eventually
regenerate. I will not be surprised if ex-Fred does regenerate this
weekend. I say it is 50/50. Models are currently not in agreement on
where landfall will occur. Anyone living between Vero Beach and
Miami-Dade should watch carefully what happens with ex-Fred. Hurricane
Hunters are expected to fly into ex-Fred tomorrow afternoon to offer
more information for a better outlook.
I will watch this closely and advise over the weekend.
*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***
Friday, September 11, 2009
Fred - Teaching Moment
Good Afternoon !!!!!!!!!! I have decided that what is going on with Hurricane Fred far far away from land should be a great teaching moment for everyone.
On Monday, September 7 at 5:00 PM, the track of Fred looked like this after the 1st advisory:
Why was Fred supposed to take that track? Well the simple answer is because the high pressure above Fred was going to be weakened by a trough of low pressure making its way across the Atlantic. The breakdown of the high pressure ridge (wall) and the influence of the trough (pull), Fred is allowed to take a more NW then north track because his "wall" will be weak and it will be "pulled".
On Tuesday, September 8 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 5th advisory:
If you notice, the track illustrates a harder "pull" to the north. Two reasons why: (1) the trough of low pressure is stronger than they thought. (2) Fred was almost a hurricane at that point. When a storm is stronger is feels the effect of a trough a lot more that a weaker one. On the previous track, Fred's path showed a slower turn to the NW and north AND it is hinting of a possible turn to the WNW.
On Wednesday, September 9 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 9th advisory:
There is the westward motion I mentioned before. Why the change? Well, for starters, the trough is still there for the first part of the advisory, but towards the end of it the high pressure builds back in and is steers Fred more west. In the middle of the track, you would see that there are three dots that loo like they are on top of each other. That is an indication that the steering currents (what move the storms) will break down and Fred will meander out there.
On Thursday, September 10 at 5:00 PM, Fred's track looked like this on after the 13th advisory:
Look at the track. You can't even see the first few dots because Fred is not even moving. Why? The steering currents broke down completely and there is nothing to "driving" the storm a certain direction. Towards the end of the track the westward movement is more distinguished. At this point, the track shows that the high pressure system above Fred will build back in in a few days and steer Fred towards the west.
Today's track looks like this:
Still meandering (as 11:00 AM Fred's movement was 1 MPH) and then turning towards the west in a few days.
I just want to show you guys that anything can change/happen with a tropical system. Just because the NHC says it is going to turn left in 5 days doesn't really mean that. Not because they don't know what they are saying, but because the atmosphere changes by the minute. When you are dealing with troughs and high pressures, there is always the possibility of the trough and/or the high pressure being weaker/stronger than expected in the days to come.
Fred is scheduled to weaken and become a remnant low in a few days, non tropical. Some models are hinting that the remnants of Fred will make it into the Bahamas in 10-12 days. Will Fred become as weak as the NHC currently says? Will he weaken only to a tropical depression? Shear is really taking its toll on Fred and that, along with cooler waters, will weaken Fred. Depending on Fred's structure in the coming days, those questions can possibly be answered. Until then, it is all speculation. I will keep an eye on this and inform all of you of any developments.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Morning Tropical Update
As of last night 11 PM, the National Hurricane Center will no longer issue advisories on the tropical depression formerly known as Erika. It has been ripped apart by shear before even getting to Hispañola. If Erika decides to regenerate, which the NHC currently gives a less than 30% chance of developing, the NHC will resume with the advisories. For now, R.I.P. Erika.
NEXT !!
Well since we are reaching the peak of hurricane season, September 12, we have another wave to track across the Atlantic for the next two weeks. A strong and huge wave near the Cape Verde islands has the potential to develop in the coming days. The NHC gives this wave a less than 30% chance of developing. The percentage is low because it emerged of the African coast early yesterday. Maybe by next week we could have a TD in the Atlantic. Time will tell. Have a great long weekend !!
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Tropical Storm Erika Update
There is not much that can be said about Erika at this moment. She is on life-support and the thinking is that she may not recover, but she has shown us that she is a fighter. We have seen everything occur with this storm, so nothing would surprise me anymore. The Hurricane Hunters have been flying around her for a few hours now and they have not found winds within Erika to support her tropical storm status. She most likely will be downgraded to a tropical depression at 5 pm. Could things change in the future for Erika regarding her structure, intensity, and atmosphere surrounding her? Yes, but that is not the thinking. It will be interesting to see what Erika does when she leaves Puerto Rico and Hispañola behind and approach the Bahamas. For now, expect to get rain and gusty winds around Tuesday in South Florida due to the remnants of Erika. I won't let my guard down until two things happen: (1) she dies (2) she passes my latitude/longitude. Since neither of those two things have occurred, I'll keep my eye on her. Another update tomorrow afternoon. Have a great night.
*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Tropical Strom Erika Update
I really don't have much of a real update. At this point, it is wait and
see what happens with Erika. Some models say Erika will be a Cat. 3
hurricane while others have it as a weak tropical storm. Others want to
take her through Puerto Rico and back out to the ocean. Which one is
correct? The NHC track of Erika has been shifting to the left since
yesterday's 5 pm advisory. The Hurricane Hunters are currently flying
through Erika and have found winds up to 50 mph. I believe that the NHC
will upgrade Erika to 45-50 mph based on that data. She is struggling to
survive and putting up a good fight. Shear is trying to kill her, but
not yet. In the last few hours it seems that thunderstorms are trying
again to get organized around the center. I have read that made the
center will be moved down and to the right of where it is now. That is
one of the reasons why Erika has weakened - she has multiple centers. It
seems that maybe the one SE is the more dominant one. Time will tell. I
will send out another update later tonight if needed. If not, expect one
at about the same time as today.
see what happens with Erika. Some models say Erika will be a Cat. 3
hurricane while others have it as a weak tropical storm. Others want to
take her through Puerto Rico and back out to the ocean. Which one is
correct? The NHC track of Erika has been shifting to the left since
yesterday's 5 pm advisory. The Hurricane Hunters are currently flying
through Erika and have found winds up to 50 mph. I believe that the NHC
will upgrade Erika to 45-50 mph based on that data. She is struggling to
survive and putting up a good fight. Shear is trying to kill her, but
not yet. In the last few hours it seems that thunderstorms are trying
again to get organized around the center. I have read that made the
center will be moved down and to the right of where it is now. That is
one of the reasons why Erika has weakened - she has multiple centers. It
seems that maybe the one SE is the more dominant one. Time will tell. I
will send out another update later tonight if needed. If not, expect one
at about the same time as today.
*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***
Update at 4:00 pm
I will send out an update at 4:00 pm regarding tropical storm Erika.
Thank you for your patience.
Thank you for your patience.
*** This communication has been sent from World Fuel Services
Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates for the intended recipient
only and may contain proprietary, confidential or privileged information.
If you are not the intended recipient, any review, disclosure, copying,
use, or distribution of the information included in this communication
and any attachments is strictly prohibited. If you have received this
communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to this
communication and delete the communication, including any
attachments, from your computer. Electronic communications sent to or
from World Fuel Services Corporation or its subsidiaries or its affiliates
may be monitored for quality assurance and compliance purposes.***
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
Tropical Storm Erika Is Born
As of 5:00 pm, invest 94L became tropical storm Erika. Erika is located at 17.2N 57.3W and she is traveling WNW at 9 mph with winds at 50 mph. Erika is expected to be by Friday afternoon north of Puerto Rico and a few hundred miles north of Haiti by Sunday afternoon. There are a lot of uncertainties with the track of Erika due to the same scenario of every year - high pressure and a trough. Currently, models are saying that a trough (takes storms out to sea) will create a weakness against the high (blocks storm from curving out to sea) over the storm. Once that occurs, the thinking is that Erika will curve out to sea. There are also those who say that the trough will not be strong enough and it will leave causing the high to build further west. Not good, but luckily that is not the current thinking. I wouldn't pay too much attention to where the models are saying Erika will travel through. They do not have any of the new information collected today by the Hurricane Hunters. That information will most likely make into the models 6-12 hours from now. Let's give the models some time to digest the info then see what they say. So for now, sit tight and listen to your local meterologists. I will have another update later tonight IF something changes. If not, expect an update after the 11 am update by the NHC.
![[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_t0FBNBARzhHt92Tc4_aBt2ahV7CN7OJ6vv_cLApxGdZrueH0rwfnASU74lesY4wDez8iIKdSCcZ-oE_cv-yHTfRyYOrlNNKRD_03hVoev57sGqe3dULVxTXFLc1AUFgjrfCEH7BrvJZ77dHhDk_y4gDITjIELtcr-VVlmcLA=s0-d)
Graphics below:
Image Credit: National Hurricane Center
Image Credit: NOAA Satellite and Information Services
Image Credit: South Florida Water Management Division
Image Credit:
Tropical Storm Erika
The Hurricane Hunters have been flying into and across invest 94L. Winds as high as 48 mph have been found. Therefore, I expect the NHC to name invest 94L Tropical Storm Erika. I am curious to see the 5 day cone of "uncertainty". More info later.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
