Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Below is a statement issued by the National Hurricane Center:

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL- DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. REPORTS FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ON SOME PARTS OF THE ISLAND. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

What it means is that a tropical wave is currently over Puerto Rico causing torrential rain. This system has been monitored for the last 3 days and has become better organized. A tropical depression might form soon out of this tropical wave, but not until there is circulation at the surface of the storm. Models indicate that this storm does not pose a threat to Florida, but still remain vigilant. If the tropical wave forms into a tropical depression, I will inform all of you.

I read that there is a tropical wave that has moved out of Africa that bears to be watched. Some of the models want to develop this week during the week, but no signs of development yet. The good thing about the African waves the later it gets in the system is that the chances of them reaching the U.S. are a bit less than before because more troughs will dig deeper (south) and pick up the storms. For example: Hurricane Wilma was born in the Caribbean and hit Cozumel, Mexico. From there it went into Cancun, Mexico and then made a big turn towards Florida. That turn was caused by a trough that came and pushed it in our general direction. That is why storms in the Caribbean are dangerous and need to be watched because the possibility that a trough will pull a storms towards us in high.

Stay tuned to Enrique6 News Blog for the latest information.