Hurricane Alex Update

Hurricane Alex as of 8:00 AM:
Location: 23.4 North Latitude, 95.3 West Longitude.
Maximum Sustained Winds: 80 mph.
Movement: West-Northwest at 7 mph.
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 MB

Alex is continuing to become very organized with every hour that goes by. The Hurricane Hunters have found a lower pressure – 959mb. Currently, the winds have not caught up with the pressure Alex has right now. Alex SHOULD have winds in the neighborhood of 115 mph – category 3 – as opposed to 80 mph. The winds are expected to catch-up with the pressure today, so rapid intensification is very likely. My prediction still stands, I believe Alex will make landfall as a category 3 hurricane. Alex is located off the coast of Mexico and is expected to make landfall tonight or in the very early hours of Thursday.

Have a great day !!

Tropical Storm Alex Update

Tropical Storm Alex as of 5:00AM

Location: 19.7 North Latitude, 91.6 West Longitude.

Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph.

Movement: Northwest at 6 mph.

Minimum Central Pressure: 990 millibars

Tropical Storm Alex made landfall over the weekend as a tropical storm and quickly deteriorated in a tropical depression upon landfall. Alex has since then regained tropical storm status as it reached the waters off the Bay of Campeche. Alex is expected to reach Category 2 status with winds up to 110 mph by landfall between eastern Mexico and western Texas by Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. There are some models that are not in agreement with the location of landfall, but at this moment those models are the outliers.

I believe that Alex will each Category 3 at landfall (115 – 125 mph) and continue to add to his lists of first's (first tropical depression, tropical storm, and hurricane) and become the first major hurricane of the season because the waters are warm along his path and the environment is conducive for further development. Also the National Hurricane Center (NHC), is usually off when estimating the potential strength of a hurricane. So when their predictions borders the next category, I go up to the one.

Since this storm will not affect us, I will not constantly post information regarding Alex. My next post will be tomorrow morning.

Invest 93-L Update

Good Morning………………

 

Here's a summary regarding Invest 93-L: the tropical wave is currently located in the Western Caribbean approaching South America. Models are forecasting two scenarios for the wave: (1) cross into Mexico, exit into the Bay of Campeche, and probably make landfall in south Texas. (2) to pass thru Yucatan Peninsula, enter the Gulf of Mexico, and head towards the Northern Gulf with the possibility of getting picked up by a trough and curved towards the Florida Panhandle. The first scenario is the favorite one at the moment. If anything happens, it will be later next week. Air reconnaissance will be dispatched into the system this morning to get a better look at the wave and for confirmation of the formation of a tropical depression.

Stay tuned to Enrique6News for more details. If invest 93-L develops today, I will issue another update to inform you. If not, expect another update Monday morning.

 

Have a great weekend !!

Invest 93L

Hello…….

As I mentioned in my last post, the tropics will start to heat up, no pun intended. The time is HERE. There is a strong tropical wave located in the Caribbean between Puerto Rico and the A.B.C. islands (Aruba, Barbados, and Curacao) that has been named, Invest 93L. The wave is currently tracking towards the west at about 10-15 mph and will change course during the week towards the WNW. It is very very early to speculate if and when will this wave develop and how strong will is be. All indications point that invest 93L will develop into a Tropical Depression later this week.

Models show that this storm has the potential to reach hurricane strength because the atmospheric conditions around the wave are ideal for development. A couple of experts have even said that for the next week, there doesn't seem to be much out there in prevent invest 93L from developing. The models range from the Gulf to the Florida Panhandle. As I have said in the past, models are only as good as the information input into them. A better idea will be gathered when invest 93L becomes a tropical storm/hurricane and the models have been given the appropriate information. With that said, we need to watch this one carefully. There is a very good chance this wave will develop and stick around for a few days.

Stay informed with Enrique6News. More information tomorrow morning/afternoon.

UK Met Office Predicts A Very Busy Season

Another very reliable meteorological agency is predicting a very active hurricane season. The MET office in the United Kingdom is forecasting 20 tropical storms between July and November. If this is an accurate forecast, the 2010 season will join only the 2005 season as the only two seasons with 20 or more named storms EVER.

 

You may be thinking, "So what. They are located in the UK. How much can they know about hurricanes." Well, the UK Met office has done very well in forecasting in previous years AND they predicted accurately that 2007 and 2009 seasons where going to be quiet. They also predicted that 2008 was going to be an active year. In other word, this seems like it is a proven system because the forecasters were able to distinguish that 2007 was going to be quiet, 2008 was going to be busy, and 2009 was going to be quiet.

 

This is just another indication of the kind of season we are heading into. Stay tuned for more information.

Invest 92L

Invest 92L is being ripped apart by 40-50 knots of wind shear in the Eastern Atlantic. Unfortunately, what is left of 92L will traverse this weekend through Hispaniola with very heavy rainfall. Hopefully, the people of Haiti will be OK considering they are still recovering from the earthquake. The big question is – in what shape will 92L be in when it gets into the Gulf of Mexico early next week? It will have to be monitored.

 

There is a tropical wave located between Africa and the Leeward Islands that some models want to develop towards the middle of next week. The models shows this wave tracking into the southwestern Caribbean around June 26-28. Considering that multiple models are showing development, it is something that cannot be disregarded. Another model is hinting of a possible development near the Yucatan Peninsula and far out in the Atlantic in another 10 days. Don't forget that none of this is "set in stone" and the atmosphere changes hourly.

 

It appears like there might be trouble in the tropics within the next 10-14 days so stay tuned to the blog for more information.

Start Your Engines - Invest 92L

Good Afternoon !!

I am sorry to disturb your Sunday afternoon, but there is a strong and impressive tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic. This wave came off the coast of Africa yesterday, 60 days before the traditional Cape Verde part of the season. What's so impressive is that during the month of June, it is rare to see such a strong tropical wave so far east so early in the system. If this wave does not develop further, this should serve as an example of how wild and crazy this hurricane season will be.

The National Huricane Center has given Invest 92L a 50% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Alex. Although it is not expected that invest 92L to survive further than the Windward Islands, not should be ruled out. I will inform all of you if invest 92L transforms into Tropical Storm Alex today, so please stay tuned.

I will create another post tomorrow morning.

Why So Active?

The 2010 hurricane season is here and it will last until November 30^th. As I mentioned last week, this season is developing into a very active tropical season. Why you may ask? Well here are a few reasons:

1.      Weakening El Niño

2.      Ocean temperatures warming

3.      Weakening trade winds

4.      Higher humidity and lower sea pressure

Last year, El Niño was present for most of the year and that is one of the main reasons why last year was quiet. With El Niño present, the ocean is unstable with strong wind shear (tears apart tropical cyclones) and other inhibiting factors. La Niña provides the opposite – nice environment for storms to flourish. She is already commencing to appear in the enviroment and will be in full force by the summer, if not sooner.

Ocean temperatures, which fuel tropical cyclones, for March and April have set new records dating back to 1950 and have continued to increased throughout May. The reason is due to a weak subtropical ridge of high pressure that has reduced trade winds and allowed the ocean to warm-up considerably. The easterly ocean currents will carry the warm water towards the Caribbean and into the Gulf of Mexico by Aug/Sep to warm further. With the ocean this warm, it is hard to ignore the fact that tropical activity will be kept to a minimum.

The experts have compiled together a few years that could be compared to how the 2010 season is currently set-up. In other words, the pre-2010 hurricane season atmospheric set-up can be best compared to the years of: 1964, 1969, 1995, 2005, and 2008. No one out there is saying that this hurricane season will be a "replica" of the 2005 season. On the contrary, it has been said that they don't expect the totals to reach or eclipse the 2005 record year.

Dr. Gray and his team at Colorado State University just released their updated forecast. They do these updates 4 times a year (December 2009, April 2010, June, and August). I will read it within the next few days and my next post will touch on the information within the report , tell you what he thinks might occur this season, and what has changed from his April update. I can tell you that in April he predicted 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. He now thinks this season will generate 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes.

More to come in the near future. Stay tuned.